
Why Was Spencer Fired?
August 17th, 2012 by Kelly McLain
With Gavin Wilkinson’s 0-4-2 record since being named interim manager (the team’s record during his six-game tenure has been a rallying cry for the recent “GWout” movement), some fans are wondering why John Spencer was fired in the first place. During the press conference to announce the change, Timbers owner and president Merritt Paulson referenced “fundamental philosophical differences” that contributed to the decision. Paulson declined to comment further which left people wondering just what was meant by the non-specific statement. Now that the Wilkinson era is six games old, here at NASN-Portland we wondered if there might be some data that could shed some light on just what those “differences” might have been.
The stats below have been compiled from the official MLS website. Five offensive categories are displayed below and sorted. The games highlighted in green represent the games managed by interim coach Gavin Wilkinson since Spencer’s departure.
Two facts immediately jump out. 1) The best ranking in each category is from a game managed by Wilkinson, and 2) the worst ranked game in each category was managed by Spencer.
ATTEMPTS ON GOAL

Wilkinson-led games hold the top spot outright as well as a tie for the second best outing, and even the 4-0 stinker in Dallas managed more attempts at goal than Spencer’s last game in charge at Real Salt Lake. Are the quality of the opponents something to be considered? Of course. After all, a Spencer-led squad did get 19 attempts against league-leaders San Jose. But in general, attempts on goal are up under Wilkinson.
PASSING ACCURACY %

This may be the most dominated category. All six of Wilkinson’s matches are in the top 10, and five of those are above 80%—a threshold Spencer only managed to break 3 times in his 17 games.
POSSESSION %

Another category that’s top-heavy with Wilkinson-managed games. Spencer had more possession than the opposition in just 5 of 17 games (29%), Wilkinson has won the possession battle in all but one match so far (83% of games). Although Wilkinson has topped this category against the likes of some of MLS’ worst sides, Spencer’s best results came against a similar caliber of opponent.
SHOTS ON TARGET

Perhaps the most even of all the data sets listed here. But as was mentioned at the top, a game watched over by Wilkinson occupies the top spot, and a Spencer game is at the bottom.
TOTAL PASSES

Every one of Wilkinson’s six games so far have included more than 360 total passes. The team reached that total in less than half of Spencer-led games.
“This is not a team record decision,” said Paulson during the July 9th Spencer-sacking press conference. And while Paulson surely isn’t pleased with Wilkinson’s 0-4-2 record since taking over, it would appear that the overall record was in fact not the underlying issue.
Paulson also went on record multiple times when the team hired Spencer saying that his expectations were that the Timbers play an “exciting, aggressive, offensive brand of soccer. An entertaining brand of soccer.” Fans would be hard-pressed to say that Spencer achieved those goals, which becomes clear when looking at the numbers above. Unfortunately is seemed as though Spencer may have been (to borrow a line from The American President) so busy trying to keep his job, he forgot to do his job. But whatever other factors outside the now-infamous “philosophical differences” contributed to Spencer’s downfall, it could certainly be argued that the offensive numbers were simply not what Paulson was looking for.



Glad the dust has settled enough tht we can start examining this issue rationally. Been waiting for something like this – thx.
Looking at attempts on goal, you can see that our worst outing were under Spencer on the road. I feel like his road philosophy was a factor in his firing. In watching those road games you can see that the team is working for a clean sheet. It seemed to me that once the clean sheet was lost in those games the Timbers folded. The team was never prepared to chase a result on the road under Spencer and the stats above help illustrate that.
This is a smart analysis, with a large enough sample size to be meaningful. Thanks a lot.
Still miss Spenny’s ebullience, though.
This was still handled poorly and Spencer should have been allowed to finish the season. It is easy to spin things now and say that we are getting slightly better results so things are okay. But this was not done in a professional manner at all. Big mistake on the part of the FO and the trading of Perkins just compounded it.
@Brian – Good observation on the road form. That could easily be an entire article with stats by itself. And your comment about playing for the clean sheet on the road is exactly the sentiment I was go for with the “so busy trying to keep his job, he forgot to do his job” line.
@Landrewc I completely disagree. Spencer was given ample time to show he was going in the the completely wrong direction. I think the way the club did this was smart and professional and unlike the Perkins event had class in the dismissal. There is clearly a lot MP could have said about those Philosophical Differences but didn’t, which to me suggests he’s actually protecting Spencer by not tarnishing his image.
Interesting read, the team seems more offense oriented. Would be interested in seeing a similar comparison on defensive stats. Is the team all around stronger or did we sacrifice other aspects of the game to get more shots. Feels like we’ve been letting in a lot of goals that we shouldn’t have …
Very nicely done. I am hoping that this will temper the GWOut movement a bit, but I am probably being overly optimistic there. It seems like much of the anti-Gavin sentiment is harbored by TA OG who are holding on to a previous grudge. Gavin may not be a great manager, and almost woeful in his dealing with the press, but not sure how much of this season’s failure should be laid at his feet.
This is called the “I have to post this or I won’t be invited onto Timbers In 30 anymore” article.
And just for fun, since i have some time on my hands.
1) Show me any meaningful study which shows that shot attempts as a raw metric actually quantifies anything of value? Let’s bring Lovel Palmer back so he can punt the ball over the PAC 25 times a game and we can lead the league in this useless stat.
2) This may sound familiar: Show me any meaningful study which shows that passing % as a raw metric actually quantifies anything of value? I find backpassing to be highly underrated as well. The fact that Dallas away had 10% higher completion that Philly home must mean the results was 10% gooder as well.
3) Any mention of possession advantage which shows LA at the top as a positive and neglects to mention that Bruce Arena’s style is to play compact and spring counters is null and void at the start. I’m so glad Gavin played right into the Galaxy’s hands. LA had the ball less than 40% of the time but still managed to put 5 past us. Hooray?
4) Shots on target. You’ve hit almost every stat except goals. Why is that? Do you get fragments of points for almost scoring? Half a point if the keeper has to touch it?
This is absolutely embarrassing. The games were dire when I saw them live, they were dire on replay. Trying to use all the numbers in the world except the ones that count most won’t change that fact. The chemistry isn’t there. The tactics aren’t there. The talent isn’t there. Period.
Great use of stats, helps shed light on some of what wasn’t working earlier. Unfortunately, the pattern we’re now seeing is the USL Timbers that GW led, often topping 20 shots, but no conversions. This team believed in each other under JS, now they don’t thanks to the negative energy GW has brought. Great example of how the pure data-driven approach doesn’t win the trophy. Remember that Billy Ball didn’t win the A’s the pennant at the end of the day.
And, #GWout. We need an upgrade in the front office.
https://twitter.com/FakeDiskin/status/236574720424833024/photo/1
@Randy – Haha! I can’t wait to get my check!
@Bill – Tell you what, If I get invited on next week, I’ll go back and change the title of this post
1) The stats are what they are, anyone can choose to value them or not and in turn interpret them however they see fit (or disregard them). There was no manipulation other than sorting; no averages, medians, or chi-squared distributions (whatever that is).
And how is shot attempts not an indicator of something? If one team averaged 15 shot attempts per game and another only 2, would you say that it doesn’t mean anything? The team with the higher attempts might lose every game, but wouldn’t that individual stat indicate something being done right, or maybe help isolate where they need to improve?
2) Like the rest of the stats, higher doesn’t necessarily mean better results, but it could indicate certain tendencies. Perhaps the Passing% stat indicates that the team is trying to play the ball on the ground and establish more possession instead of playing direct long balls over the top? It may not be translating to points right now, but isn’t that a direction you would like to see the team move?
3) So what does it mean that in one of Spencer’s games against LA the team couldn’t win the possession battle? If, as you say, Arena wants his team to be compact and hit on the counter (by which I assume you mean that he disregards overall possession), what does it say that in one of Spencer’s games he couldn’t even win the possession battle that you imply Arena was basically giving away? If Wilkinson didn’t win the possession battle against LA you would no doubt be using it as a negative.
4) You don’t want more shots on target? Aside from relying on own-goals, I’m pretty sure shots on target are required to score goals and in turn win games. Why no stat about goals scored, you ask? With an 0-4-2 record it’s probably a fair assumption that goals scored are down. This post wasn’t intended to figure out why the team is losing but perhaps provide insight into what was wrong in the Spencer era that led to his firing. Merritt said it wasn’t a team record decision, which has a pretty strong correlation to goals scored (or maybe more accurately goal differential). This post isn’t about the team’s record (and by extension goals scored), but what might be some underlying issues that led to those results. We know the results, and Merritt said that wasn’t the issue. Perhaps these indicators were part of the issue(s).
None of this info can be looked at in a vacuum. The point is that, as a whole, it would appear as though the overall offense is a focal point that is being addressed and it may have been a concern that led to Spencer’s departure.
This post makes no attempt to assert that Spencer was bad and Wilkinson is good, or even better that Spencer, simply that there appear to be some trends that were not evident under Spencer, and maybe they played a part in his dismissal.
Unfortunately, you are on a snipe hunt.
The “philosophical differences” line was invented by the PR department, and the reason John Spencer was fired was because he confronted Merritt Paulson about Merritt’s continual interference with his coaching duties. Merritt didn’t like it, so he fired him.
In this interview http://www.portlandtimbers.com/video/2012/08/10/timbers-30-august-10-2012 at the 5:50 mark, Merritt goes off message and let’s it slip that he could love to talk about why hy fired John Spencer, but he isn’t allowed to say because it would be bad for the team if he or John spoke publicly “about internal business”. The PR team have their hands full with him.
@Peter – Apparently you seem to have some inside sources feeding you information. I guess the rest of us will just have to make due with what is said publicly.
So either every word out of analysts mouth these days has to be a scathing of GW or he is a Timbers company man and knows nothing about soccer.
The failure of the Timbers so far is on Paulson, Wilkinson, Spencer and the players. Wilkinson owns his share of blame (I don’t know exactly what that is but I do believe it’s significant). But I might ask the greater TimbersNet if it may actually be possible that Wilkinson is doing somethings better as a coach than his predecessor, even if he may be worse on the whole?
I would just encourage people to try on some rational pants.
So… Who cares if these statistics are good, if they can’t win?
Yes, we’ve now had our first two-goal away matches (two of ‘em in a row, in fact!) But for both, we blew the early lead, and got a draw and a loss.
“Improvement” only matters if it actually results in *WINNING*.
Remember, we had *40* shots vs. Cal FC. Who gives a flying f— if we have more shots under GW than under JS. GW is the one that brought these players here, if he can’t win with them, then GWout.
The stats matter in the context of how we are playing the game. Under Spencer our offense was stagnant and uncreative, and non-existent on the road. As I said before, under Spencer the team was giving up once the clean sheet was lost. In the last two games we have seen the team fight for a result until the final whistle, that is the biggest change we have seen since Spencer was canned. I am not pro GW due to the poor results against the worst teams in the league, but I am willing to let this play out under a new head coach to see how it goes.
@Brian
Unfortunately we didn’t fight even after the whistle had blown, which proved to be quite the tactic for RBNY.
What about goals scored and goals against? These seem the most important stats to consider. Can you either edit the article to include them – or explain why they aren’t shown?
Spencer – 2 goals in 8 road matches
GW – 4 goals in 4 road matches
Haven’t you updated this post to reflect what Gavin’s Timbers team looks like against a playoff team?
33% possession
278 passes
71% passing accuracy
It would take a real moron, or idiot if you prefer, to think that those kind of meaningless numbers are good enough for Merritt.
Not that it really matters but it was a 5-0 stinker vs Dallas, not 4-0. And the average coach lasts 18 months on an Mls expansion team. Spencer=19 months